A slight decline in mortgage rates in December and January has sparked optimism in the housing market. According to data released by the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales have seen an improvement for the second consecutive month. This surge in pending contracts is a positive sign for the industry, signaling a potential rise in home sales. While year-over-year numbers have dropped by 24%, the recent spike in pending transactions is a clear indicator of the market's resilience.
Understanding the Pending Home Sales Index
The Pending Home Sales Index is a crucial indicator of housing activity, measuring contract signings for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. This index offers insights into future home sales by providing a forward-looking perspective. As homes typically go under contract a month or two before being sold, the Pending Home Sales Index often leads existing-home sales by a month or two.
What Does the Data Mean for Buyers and Sellers?
While the rise in pending home sales is encouraging, the housing market is expected to remain volatile in the near future. Sellers may need to offer price concessions to entice buyers, but higher interest rates could deter some from making a purchase. According to Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, the recent pending sales data suggests that the housing market may have reached its bottom at the end of last year. However, a smooth recovery should not be expected. The housing market is likely to experience a bumpy road as it strives to return to normalcy by 2023.
Uncertainty in the Housing Market
The housing market remains uncertain due to fluctuating mortgage rates. With the Federal Reserve indicating potential rate hikes, mortgage rates could continue to rise. This trend has already been reflected in decreased mortgage applications and a pullback in buyer interest. Sturtevant explains that the current housing market poses a battle between rational financial decisions and instinctive psychological factors. Some potential buyers may find homeownership unattainable due to higher mortgage rates, while others may be motivated to reenter the market after observing the sidelines for months.
The Future of Existing Home Sales
Despite improving interest rates and job gains, Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors, predicts a decline of 11% in annual existing-home sales for 2023, totaling 4.5 million units. However, Yun anticipates an 18% jump in 2024, reaching 5.2 million units. New-home sales are projected to decrease by 4% year-over-year in 2023, followed by a 19% growth in 2024. These fluctuations indicate that the housing market's trajectory is on a path towards recovery.
Regional Breakdown
Analyzing regional data, the Northeast's Pending Home Sales Index rose 6% from the previous month, representing a decline of 20% from January 2022. Meanwhile, the Midwest index experienced an 8% growth, but dropped by 21% compared to the previous year. In the South, the PHSI increased by 8%, dipping 25% from the prior year. Lastly, the West region saw a 10% rise in January, but a 29% decrease from January 2022.
In conclusion, the recent surge in pending home sales contracts signifies a positive turn for the housing market. While uncertainties remain, such as fluctuating mortgage rates and buyer hesitations, the overall outlook is optimistic. As the economy continues to recover and job growth remains steady, the housing market is expected to gradually stabilize.