Tennessee Housing Market: Prices, Trends, and Forecast 2023-2024

The Tennessee housing market is a vibrant and dynamic ecosystem that significantly impacts the economy and people's lives. Whether you're a potential homebuyer, seller, or simply curious about the latest trends, having a clear understanding...

Tennessee Housing Market

The Tennessee housing market is a vibrant and dynamic ecosystem that significantly impacts the economy and people's lives. Whether you're a potential homebuyer, seller, or simply curious about the latest trends, having a clear understanding of house prices and market dynamics is essential. In this article, we will explore the current state of the Tennessee housing market, highlighting key trends and providing valuable insights for both buyers and sellers.

Current House Prices & Trends in Tennessee

According to Redfin, as of October 2023, the median home price in Tennessee has experienced a 4.0% increase compared to the previous year, reaching a median price of $371,900. This upward trend signifies the continued strength and demand for residential properties in the state.

Regional Variances in Price Growth

Notably, several metropolitan areas in Tennessee have witnessed remarkable growth in sales prices. Greeneville leads the pack with an impressive 63.1% increase, followed by Oak Ridge at 28.1% and Germantown at 24.6%. These figures highlight the diverse nature of the state's real estate landscape, offering various opportunities for buyers and sellers.

Housing Supply Dynamics

The availability of homes in the market plays a pivotal role in shaping buyer options and market competitiveness. As of October 2023, there were 31,850 homes for sale in Tennessee, reflecting a 1.1% decrease compared to the previous year. The average months of supply stand at 4 months, emphasizing the balance between demand and supply.

Competitiveness in the Market

Understanding the competitiveness of the market is crucial for both buyers and sellers. In October 2023, 19.4% of homes in Tennessee were sold above the list price, underlining the fierce competition among buyers. Additionally, the sale-to-list price ratio was 97.8%, indicating a robust and well-balanced market.

Top Cities for Migration in Tennessee

Examining migration trends provides valuable insights into the desirability of different areas. In the specified period, Tennessee emerged as a popular destination, with Nashville securing a spot among the top 10 areas people are moving to, with a net inflow of 2,800. The state's appeal is further evidenced by its ranking among the top five states homebuyers search for when considering relocation.

Tennessee Housing Market Forecast 2023-2024

Zillow's latest data reveals insights into the Tennessee housing market, offering a comprehensive look at key indicators influencing the real estate landscape. The average home value in Tennessee currently stands at $309,795, reflecting a 2.5% increase over the past year. Furthermore, homes are swiftly going into pending status in approximately 17 days, highlighting the fast-paced nature of the market.

Inventory and Listings:

  • For Sale Inventory (October 31, 2023): 24,407
  • New Listings (October 31, 2023): 7,882

Sale Metrics:

  • Median Sale to List Ratio (September 30, 2023): 0.990
  • Median Sale Price (September 30, 2023): $313,333

List Price Statistics:

  • Median List Price (October 31, 2023): $394,467

Market Trends:

The median sale price of homes in Tennessee, currently at $313,333 as of September 30, 2023, indicates the current value buyers are willing to pay. Meanwhile, the median list price as of October 31, 2023, is $394,467, suggesting a potential upward trend in sellers' expectations. The competitive nature of the market is evident with a notable percentage of homes selling above their listed prices.

Regional Forecast for Tennessee: Top 10 MSAs for Home Price Growth

  1. Knoxville, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.5%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.8%
    • 31-01-2024: 3.6%
    • 31-10-2024: 3.6%
  2. Crossville, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.4%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.7%
    • 31-01-2024: 3.6%
    • 31-10-2024: 3.6%
  3. McMinnville, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.5%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.7%
    • 31-01-2024: 3.4%
    • 31-10-2024: 3.4%
  4. Johnson City, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.6%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.9%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.6%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.6%
  5. Morristown, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.5%
    • 30-11-2023: 1.0%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.6%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.6%
  6. Tullahoma, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.0%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.2%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.5%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.5%
  7. Greeneville, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.4%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.5%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.4%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.4%
  8. Athens, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.5%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.9%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.4%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.4%
  9. Kingsport, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.6%
    • 30-11-2023: 1.0%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.3%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.3%
  10. Shelbyville, TN:

    • Base Date (31-10-2023): 0.3%
    • 30-11-2023: 0.5%
    • 31-01-2024: 2.3%
    • 31-10-2024: 2.3%

This regional forecast by Zillow provides valuable insights into the anticipated home price growth across the top 10 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in Tennessee. It helps potential buyers and sellers make informed decisions in a dynamic real estate landscape.

Other Factors That Can Impact the Housing Market in Tennessee

When the housing market is booming, it is often a result of job growth and decreases in unemployment rates. The housing market is closely tied to the overall economy, and the health of the economy and job market directly affects buyers' purchasing power. Tennessee has seen a 1.8% increase in the job market over the last year.

Future job growth in Tennessee over the next ten years is predicted to be 41.6%, higher than the US average of 33.5%. Tennessee was ranked as the 11th best economy in the country, just behind the District of Columbia, based on an analysis from WalletHub. The rankings took into account factors such as economic activity, economic health, and innovation potential. Tennessee experienced significant real GDP growth of 8.6%, surpassing many other states.

Population growth is another crucial factor that impacts the housing market. As the population increases, more people require housing, driving up the demand for real estate. Middle Tennessee, in particular, is experiencing substantial growth, with Spring Hill ranking among the top 10 cities for population growth. According to projections from the United States Census Bureau, Tennessee could gain nearly a million new residents by 2040, reaching a total population of 7.87 million.

In summary, the Tennessee housing market showcases positive trends in terms of price growth and market competitiveness. With a robust economy, job growth, and a growing population, the state's real estate landscape presents opportunities for buyers and sellers alike. By staying informed about the latest trends and forecasts, individuals can make well-informed decisions in navigating the dynamic housing market.

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